US trade heads toward $6 trillion, driven by the AI data center race

The United States could surpass $6 trillion in goods trade for the first time in history in 2026. The main driver behind this surge is imports of computer hardware needed to build data centers for artificial intelligence. In the first half of 2026, imports of computers — desktops, laptops, tablets, and AI servers — rose 91.72% year-over-year. That's an extraordinarily rare pace by the standards of US trade history.

Looking back at US trade history, the gaps between trillion-dollar milestones have steadily shrunk. The first trillion was recorded in 1993, the second in 2004, and the third just three years later, in 2007. Trade volume topped $4 trillion in 2018 and hit $5 trillion in 2022. Now the country is on the cusp of a new milestone: $6 trillion.

In the first six months of 2026, US foreign trade turnover totaled $2.98 trillion. To reach $6 trillion for the full year, the second half would need to deliver 50.28% of the total — roughly $3.02 trillion. Notably, every second half since 2018, when the $4 trillion mark was crossed, has outpaced that share — the sole exception being 2025, an atypical year due to tariffs being front-loaded ahead of schedule.

If the $6 trillion milestone is reached by year-end, the broad category of computer products, including servers, will account for the biggest share of that growth. In 2025, that category overtook oil and passenger vehicles to become the single most valuable group in US imports. That same flow of computer hardware from Taiwan has, for the first time, made Chicago's O'Hare airport the country's largest trade gateway.

The numbers vividly illustrate the scale of investment pouring into AI infrastructure. Compared with the first half of 2022, when the US first crossed the $5 trillion mark, computer imports have grown by $136.71 billion, or 236.79%. Imports of computer parts rose by $53.44 billion to $71.38 billion — a 297.85% increase, the fastest growth rate among leading import categories. By contrast, total US import growth over the same period was just 7.76%, underscoring how extraordinary these figures are. Imports of digital storage devices jumped 200.46% — up $18.53 billion to $27.77 billion — vaulting the category from 28th place in the import rankings into the top ten. Much of this growth is directly tied to spending by Alphabet (Google), Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Oracle on AI data centers.

Other categories tied to AI infrastructure construction have also seen significant growth: imports of power units rose 69.07% to $17.76 billion, while copper imports climbed 167.11% to $11.37 billion — the third-highest percentage increase among leading import categories.

Behind these numbers lies not consumer interest in everyday electronics but a historic investment cycle in the data centers and computing power that the world's largest tech companies are building to win the AI race. That very wave could push US goods trade past $6 trillion for the first time in 2026 — even as the country tries to shrink its trade deficit, its most advanced companies are becoming ever more dependent on massive volumes of imported equipment just to stay competitive in the AI race.