Back-to-School Shopping 2026: Growth Concentrated Among Higher-Income Families

According to a new report from analytics firm Circana, the 2026 back-to-school shopping season will be "average at best" — unit demand is soft, and spending growth is being driven mainly by higher prices. In July, total retail revenue fell 1% year-over-year, while units sold dropped 2%.

In the four weeks ending August 1, retail revenue in the discretionary general merchandise category fell 4.3%, while unit demand dropped 3.9%. Circana says shoppers are being cautious with discretionary purchases, and that growth is coming mainly from higher-income consumers.

Kiara Barrett, Circana's global head of thought leadership, said in a statement: "Consumers are still spending, but it's more about prioritization than expansion — driven by purpose rather than promotions. Promotional activity still matters, but broad discounting on its own is doing little to generate incremental demand."

Data Circana released in July shows back-to-school shoppers are focusing primarily on school supplies and technology, while spreading clothing purchases out over the rest of the year — with children's apparel unit sales expected to decline 1-2% in the third quarter.

According to Omnisend data from last month, roughly 40% of parents say they feel more financial pressure this season than in 2025, and 45% of U.S. households plan to use buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) financing for back-to-school purchases — up from 39% a year earlier. Even so, according to the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics, total spending is expected to hit a record $43.3 billion this year, up from $39.4 billion in 2025.