Nvidia Issues Its First-Ever One-Year-Ahead Forecast: A Blockbuster 70% Growth Call

For the first time in its history, Nvidia has issued a forecast for the fiscal year after next, and the number stunned the market: the company expects revenue to grow 70% in fiscal 2028. That's well above the average analyst estimate of 44% — if it holds, Nvidia's revenue could reach roughly $690-700 billion, rather than the previously expected $570 billion, more than $100 billion above the market consensus.

CEO Jensen Huang told investors on a Wednesday earnings call, 'We wanted everyone to have the same information. We've got a big year ahead of us, and it's going to be truly extraordinary.' He noted the company doesn't typically issue forecasts this far out: 'We've never given a one-year-ahead forecast before, we've never done it this way.'

Melissa Otto, head of the Visible Alpha research unit at S&P Global, said the growth figure 'blew past expectations entirely' — particularly since Nvidia rarely offers guidance of this kind. 'What stunned the market was that 70% figure for fiscal 2028, which came in well ahead of Visible Alpha's consensus,' Otto said. CFO Colette Kress said customer forecasts point to Nvidia's growth rate roughly doubling next year. Shares of the company jumped more than 4% in after-hours trading following the news.

But behind that steep projected growth lie serious supply constraints - a challenge weighing on other major tech companies as well. 'Our entire supply chain is strained, and that's affecting everyone - everybody is running at full capacity,' Huang said. Without those constraints, he added, next year's growth rate would be even higher: 'Our demand is well above 70%, but our supply capacity is what lets us confidently commit to that 70% number.'

The company's bold forecast also serves as a kind of rebuttal to growing criticism of so-called 'circular financing' in AI investment - concerns that companies are manufacturing artificial demand by investing in one another. Nvidia is attempting to back its case with numbers grounded in real customer forecasts and market demand. Investors, along with the marketing and business community, are reading it as further evidence that AI infrastructure spending has yet to peak.